As the presidential election unfolds across the nation, it can be hard to detect the really significant data from the blizzard of words being thrown at you. What you need to know is the expected distribution of electoral votes (based on polling data) and then be able to see departures from that expectation as the evening unfolds, along with which state results are the really significant clues. Here is my effort to provide a guidebook to the evening.
In short? If the race is the landslide some hope, then, between 8:15 and 9:30 Obama will pass the magic figure of 270 electoral votes. If the race is about as tight as the polls predict, his election will occur no later than at 10pm when California is declared for Obama. If it is much worse than expected, I can only advise medication.
First, the over/under figure. Obama has currently a 6 point lead or bigger in states that total 311 electoral votes. He leads by 3 points or less in several other states, but there is no state where his lead is larger than 3 but smaller than 6. So let’s use the 311 figure as our starting point for Obama. McCain leads by 8 or more in states with 132 EV, and by 3 or more in states with 145 EV. So let’s give him a little benefit of the doubt and use 145 as our base figure for McCain. 311 and 145 (and 85 undecided) will be our base figures.
Then some assumptions about how the media “calls” a state for a presidential candidate. (Note that the 2000, 2004 and 2006 elections did not go totally smoothly for this pooled operation. So all this is just a way of saying “don’t blame me” if things don’t work out like I say here.) The media do not call an individual state until the polls are closed in that state, even if they have ample data from exit polling that one candidate has won. Complicating this is that a number of states are split across time zones and so sometimes (I think) races are called in a state when the majority, but not all, of the polls have closed. And then too, voting is sometimes held open after official closing time due to lines – something which could be a bigger factor this year. But, the point is that if a state is called immediately after its polls close, the race isn’t close; the closer it is, the longer they wait as they collect more data – and that’s a clue we can use. Based on the 2004 election, if the winning margin in a state is 8 points or better, the media declare the winner pretty much right when the polls close – but there are some exceptions.
OK, on to the evening. All times in Central Standard Time.
5:00 PM Over/under: Obama: 0 EV McCain: 8 EV
Yes, you can start your evening at 5pm. Indiana and Kentucky close by then (to say nothing of the Virgin Islands, they of zero electoral votes). Neither state is on Obama’s path to the 311 over/under figure but Indiana will be fun to watch. Yes, it may well go for McCain, but how quickly? If it promptly flips to McC, then that’s our first clue that we’re in for a long evening. If it hangs out there for ever, we’re right on track to 311. And if Obama wins it – game over. Note that Indiana is one of those split time zone states, so the networks may have decided to hold off to 6pm when all the polls have closed.
I also predict at least one media talking head will declare that McCain is “out to an early lead” and ask his sidekick if this means Obama is in trouble.
Kentucky has one of the swing senate races. If the Democrats are getting to 60 (unlikely, in my view, and especially unlikely without keeping Liebermann) they need Lunsford to topple McConnell. Lunsford is 3 points down in the polls but has been gaining. The very conservative McConnell is the minority leader and should be invulnerable, but isn’t.
6:00 PM Obama over/under: 16 EV McCain: 16 EV
Florida and Georgia are the states to watch here. Neither is in the 311 total, Obama is 2 points ahead in Florida and 2 points behind in Georgia. Neither state is likely to be called right at 6, so we can watch how long it takes for them to go. Florida has some poles in the Central time zone that won’t close until 7pm. Again, if Obama wins either of these, it’s a plus. I know there has been a lot of attention on Florida and someone is sure to call this a “must win” state for Obama, but it isn’t. Loosing Florida just means a landslide is unlikely, not that he’s going to loose the election.
Virginia is one of the states Obama needs, he’s up by only 6 points there, so look for Virginia not to trip right at 6pm.
Georgia has a close senate race and as in Kentucky, polls have the Democrat Martin 3 points back of the Republican incumbent Chambliss.
6:30 PM Obama over/under: 36 EV McCain: 21 EV
Ohio closes now, and this is a close state that Obama needs. It will probably not be called right at 6:30, but should trip soon thereafter.
7:00 PM Obama over/under: 136 EV McCain: 54 EV
A host of states close now, and most of them are pretty one sided. Missouri is the only true undecided state here, and it’s not part of Obama’s 311 EV total. However, Pennsylvania (part of Obama’s 311 total) closes also, and this state has gotten a lot of attention lately under the “race tightening” mantra. Most of this tightening has been undecideds breaking for McCain, rather than Obama’s voters changing to McCain, Obama is still over 50% in the polls. This is an important state for Obama, and it may be close enough that it will not be called right at 7pm. If it does take a while, look for media to hype the tension, but it should go to Obama within an hour of 7pm.
7:30 PM Obama over/under: 136 EV McCain: 60 EV
North Carolina is the interesting state that closes now, and it’s not part of Obama’s 311.
But, North Carolina has the Senate battle between Elizabeth (“my opponent is godless”) Dole and Hagen. Hagen is up by 4, and this is a senate race the Dems need.
8:00 PM Obama over/under: 222 EV McCain: 130 EV
Another batch close here including Minnesota. If you’re paranoid, check that New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado fall in line. If you’re optimistic, root for Arizona. Suppose the evening has been going well for the democrat – could he win by now? Only in a landslide. If Obama has picked up Florida, Georgia, Missouri, and North Carolina (or 3 of the 4) in addition to the states in his 311 base, he’d be at 290 now and home free. But the odds are that even if he will win them when it is all done, some states will be close and not called very readily, so he will not go over 270 when the states closing at 8pm are called.
There is another point that some of the media will likely miss: Obama only really needs to be at 193 or more before 10pm due to the massive chunk of blue states that will close at 10pm (see below). If he is at 222 after the close of the 8pm states, then he’s won.
Naturally we want to watch the Minnesota senate race, but also the House races in the 3rd district (open seat; Ashwin Madia (D) vs. Paulsen (R)), 5th (The actual Muslim Ellison running for reelection) and 6th (The deeply weird Ms. Bachmann vs. net-roots powered Tinklenberg)
9:00 PM Obama over/under: 234 EV McCain: 138
The time from 8 to 10 could be the agony period. Hovering at the edge and us forced to listen to people we’d flunk in our classes tell us nonsense. However, if you want some entertainment at 9, see how fast Montana is declared. For Obama to win prior to 10 pm he’ll need to have won at least two of the following: Indiana, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, N. Carolina.
10:00 PM Obama over/under: 311 EV McCain: 142
Kaboom. At 10 pm California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington close and Obama is currently ahead by 12 or more points in all of them – so they are likely to be declared right at 10. That is 77 EV. Even if a number of close states have not been called by now, he is quite likely to have been at 193 or more by 10pm.
For you election junkies, North Dakota is the close state that will close at 10.
Only Alaska is still out there (till midnight), gosh darn it. It does have the interesting senate race where Stevens (yes you ARE a convicted felon) trails Begich – but only by 4 points.
Now come the concession speeches, and we can see how much the losers have to walk back from what they said during the race. Now we can take bets on how long it will be before somebody cautions Obama that “he didn’t get a mandate” and that “this is still a conservative nation” and that he can’t govern without the permission of the Republicans.