Gyroscope

An article by Josef Braml in the Washington Quarterly has these insights

Since the 1950s, U.S. energy consumption, mainly driven by the transportation sector and fed by oil, has almost tripled.

...

Although the United States has managed to boost oil production from 5.9 million barrels per day in 1950 to 7.8 million barrels per day in 2005, this is not sufficient con¬sidering the daily need of 20.7 million barrels, two-thirds of which is consumed by the transportation sector.

...

Due to higher oil prices, energy imports add¬ed about $70 billion to the U.S. trade deficit in 2005 and $50 billion in 2006.25 They currently account for roughly one-third of the current trade imbalance.

...

Oil consumption accounts for about 40 percent of energy-related carbon di¬oxide emissions, which cause pollution, human health problems, and climate change.

Posted by John Nordin at 10:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The new book by Josh Rushing

I admit that I admire Rushing. From his first appearance in the movie Control Room through the last page of this book he is unfailingly calm, reasonable and even handed; not something we have a surplus of these days. His personal journey is compelling, but his mission: to break down barriers of misunderstanding between Americans and the world confident that most people everywhere want to live in peace is one I strongly believe in.

The book mirrors this. He recounts his personal story, his upbringing, his career in the Marines, his frustration with the political appointees who shaped relations with the media during the early days of the Iraq war and his transition out of the Marines due to their distaste with his appearance in Control Room. By the way, he explains that almost all of the film of him in that movie comes from one interview, and doesn’t really reflect an arc of growth over a period of time.

My only frustration with the book is that because he so calm, that he doesn’t provide many of the juicy details I was hoping for. Some are there, and my favorites are the stories of the arch-conservative spokespeople who orate against the evil of Al Jazera and then accept money from it for interviews. But even then he can’t bring himself to indulge in inflated rhetoric and violent denunciations. Probably a good thing.

Most of the book is given to him arguing his case for increased and open interaction with the Arab world and the key role that interacting with Al Jazera could play in that. He points out that, by one survey, Al Jazera is the number one media brand in the world. He defends the network against some common distortions (it has never, not once, shown a beheading, for example) and reminds readers that Al Jazera has been thrown out of most of the Arab world for its honest reporting.

One of the interesting ironies is that Israel is more open about interacting with Al Jazera than is American media. Israeli government spokespeople appear on the network regularly; American’s refuse.

Rushing’s vision of the world is hopeful and compelling. His tag line on the book is reflected on every page: “Build a bridge, seek the truth, change the world.”

Posted by John Nordin at 11:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Tomas Friedman, well known for his trademark predictions that the “next six months will be crucial” in Iraq (predictions he made for years) and for his apparently composing books on global trends based on conversations with a single taxi driver in some foreign country has another fine example of reasoning in his column of May 11th.

He’s writing about Hezbollah and says:

On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah fighters directed by Nasrallah abducted two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others in an unprovoked attack across the Lebanon0Israel boardre, on the pretext of seeking a prisoner exchange.

Let me know if any of the words I’m using are too big.

Posted by John Nordin at 05:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rick Steves passes on this link of photos of Iran - amazing photos because they show Tehran as an ordinary, attractive, urban area. If we saw it like that it would be harder to destroy. God forbid the US launch another war to satisfy the ego of the neo-cons.

3/5 update:

A reader wrote the following:

It seems to me that all the leadership courage has been sucked out of the planet (through the ozone layer, perhaps?). I'm not seeing courage anywhere---in my work with organizations, nor certainly on the political horizon.

Yes, where is the courage, the leadership to express our outrage about the attempt to attack Iran?

Posted by John Nordin at 05:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

That was Zbigniew Brzezinski's take on Iraq. And his words on the upcoming Iranian confrontation were even blunter, all but accusing the Bush administation in advance of planning on a fake pretext for war with Iran.

Read it at the Washington Note

Posted by John Nordin at 03:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Insight can be found in strange places.

If you check out the Energy Information Administration’s country reports you can easily learn things the media has never grasped.

Here, in the report for the Eastern Mediterranean, are facts that frighten but also give hope.

Palestine obtains all its electricity from Israel. The only diesel-fired power plant in Gaza was bombed in July 2006 by the Israelis. Jordan imports oil and has been hurt by high oil prices of late. Lebanon imports electricity from Syria. Israel has almost no oil reserves and not a single nuclear power plant. Israel imports oil from Egypt, and of late, from Russia and the Caspian. Israel has an unused pipeline that was originally built to transport oil from Iran.

Each of these connections is a risk of instability – and a chance for interdependence. In a slightly different world bombing Gaza’s power would have cost Israel money; disrupting the Palestinians would have reduced economic output in Jerusalem and blowing up houses in Lebanon would have reduced the profits of insurance companies and power companies in Tel Aviv.

In that world, the tight interdependencies of the economic sectors of oil, energy, water, food, and even the intellect would be constant reminders that destruction of one country leads to pain in another.

But we don’t live in that world.

Posted by John Nordin at 11:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

For a more accurate picture of how the Al Qaeda connection works and doesn’t work, see After Zarquawi: The Dilemmas and Future of Al Qaeda in Iraq, by Brian Fishman, in the Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2006, p. 19

He explains the differences between Zarquawi and Bin Laden’s Al Qaeda, how they came together for tactical reasons, but how they split over Zarquawi’s willingness to kill other Moslems.

Posted by John Nordin at 11:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Walter Posch in Middle East Policy (Fall 2006, p. 109) lays out the evidence that the U.S. is indeed making plans to remain in Iraq for some years. One of the most disgusting pieces of evidence he offers is how members of Congress are now protesting against “permanent” bases, but silently acquiescing in “enduring” bases in a slight of hand they are confident no member of the press can ever figure out.

Posted by John Nordin at 07:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

For a more reasonable and informative take on what Iran is up to, look at the article by David Albrights, “When Could Iran get the Bomb? What we know and what we don’t know about Iran’s nuclear program.”

The first clue that we might learn something is that this is in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists July 2006 and our second clue is that the author is president of the Institute for Science and International Security. In other words, an article written by a scientist for scientists.

What does he say? Iran, in his judgment, is doing things that imply it wants at least to preserve the option of making a fast push to build a weapon and that it will take them a minimum of three years to do so, and likely much more.

He also flatly accuses US government sources of flat out lying about what the IAEA actually found to hype the fear of a real danger to the world. Himm, have we heard this before?

He recommends diplomacy, but also sanctions on Iran’s acquisition of duel use items.

Posted by John Nordin at 07:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

One of the curious aspects of the public perceptions of the Middle East wars is what constitutes provocation – who is seen to be striking first. Despite all the back and forth that has gone on for decades, it is still quite common to envisage Israel as the innocent. Indeed it is almost universal to have the opinion that the recent war between Hezbollah and Israel was the result of an “unprovoked” attack by Hezbollah that resulted in the capture of two solders. However there is a much larger, and more complex context as reported by George Monbiot in the August 8th Guardian.

Here are some key excerpts.

Since Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon in May 2000, there have been hundreds of violations of the "blue line" between the two countries. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil) reports that Israeli aircraft crossed the line "on an almost daily basis" between 2001 and 2003, and "persistently" until 2006. These incursions "caused great concern to the civilian population, particularly low-altitude flights that break the sound barrier over populated areas". On some occasions, Hizbullah tried to shoot them down with anti-aircraft guns.

On May 26 this year, two officials of Islamic Jihad - Nidal and Mahmoud Majzoub - were killed by a car bomb in the Lebanese city of Sidon. This was widely assumed in Lebanon and Israel to be the work of Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency. In June, a man named Mahmoud Rafeh confessed to the killings and admitted that he had been working for Mossad since 1994. Militants in southern Lebanon responded, on the day of the bombing, by launching eight rockets into Israel. One soldier was lightly wounded. There was a major bust-up on the border, during which one member of Hizbullah was killed and several wounded, and one Israeli soldier wounded. But while the border region "remained tense and volatile", Unifil says it was "generally quiet" until July 12.

But there is no serious debate about why the two soldiers were captured: Hizbullah was seeking to exchange them for the 15 prisoners of war taken by the Israelis during the occupation of Lebanon and (in breach of article 118 of the third Geneva convention) never released. It seems clear that if Israel had handed over the prisoners, it would - without the spillage of any more blood - have retrieved its men and reduced the likelihood of further kidnappings

On July 12, in other words, Hizbullah fired the first shots. But that act of aggression was simply one instance in a long sequence of small incursions and attacks over the past six years by both sides. So why was the Israeli response so different from all that preceded it? The answer is that it was not a reaction to the events of that day. The assault had been planned for months.

The San Francisco Chronicle reports that "more than a year ago, a senior Israeli army officer began giving PowerPoint presentations, on an off-the-record basis, to US and other diplomats, journalists and thinktanks, setting out the plan for the current operation in revealing detail". The attack, he said, would last for three weeks. It would begin with bombing and culminate in a ground invasion. Gerald Steinberg, professor of political science at Bar-Ilan University, told the paper that "of all of Israel's wars since 1948, this was the one for which Israel was most prepared ... By 2004, the military campaign scheduled to last about three weeks that we're seeing now had already been blocked out and, in the last year or two, it's been simulated and rehearsed across the board".

Posted by John Nordin at 06:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

For a more considered take on the Israeli-Hezbollah War then you will receive in the mass media, consider the document produced by Anthony Cordesman for the Center for Strategic and international Studies. He has good contacts, it appears, within the Israeli military. Some highlights

It was never clear from discussions with Israeli officials exactly what the real original battle plan was. (p. 14)

One key point that should be mentioned more in passing than as a lesson, although it may be a warning about conspiracy theories, is that no serving Israeli official, intelligence officer, or other military officer felt that the Hezbollah acted under the direction of Iran or Syria. (p.15) [He argues they each used each other.]

… Iranian 747s routinely offloaded arms in Syrian airports … (p.15) [for shipment to Hezbollah]

Israeli intelligence officials also stated that they knew some 100 Iranian advisors were working with the Hezbollah (p.16)

He makes an interesting point about stealth technology applying to low signature weapons like the small rockets Hezbollah used not just to high technology platforms. He indicates he was shown video of rocket launches coming from houses where the entire time Hezbollah was in the house was no more than a minute. (p.19)

He also observes that while there was an agreed massive buildup of Hezbollah by Iran and Syria this cost the two nations perhaps no more than $100 – 150 million – something they can easily afford and easily afford to do again. (p. 20)

Posted by John Nordin at 06:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

How is the cease fire holding? Well so far, Hezbollah has shot some rockets, but since they landed in Lebanon, Israel didn’t reply. There’s a report Israel did a commando raid into Lebanon, but most seem to be ignoring that. Oh, and one more thing: Israel is still blockading Lebanon by land and sea and still occupying southern Lebanon. And the oil slick that is tearing up the Mediterranean coast, caused by Israel bombing of oil facilities (Does Hezbollah hide its fighters next to gas stations? That would explain it, I suppose.) And apparently 1 million people – one fourth of the Lebanese population were displaced.

And those two soldiers whose capture started it all? Long forgotten by everyone, apparently. Almost like the war wasn’t really about them.

Posted by John Nordin at 06:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Der Spiegel On-Line reports how well the Bush administration is doing at isolating Syria as a rouge regime. (excerpted)

The yellow Hezbollah flag has been raised all over Damascus -- flying from cars, draped over balconies and plastered on the sides of buildings all over the city. Images of Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah are likewise omnipresent: tens of thousands of posters and placards depicting the Hezbollah leader have flooded the city.

Young men download Nasrallah's sermons as ring tones for their cell phones, and even Christians light candles for the Shiite leader in church.

an expert close to the Syrian Foreign Ministry who asked not to be identified. "Why should we help?" he asks. "Let the West head for its own doom thanks to its policies -- that's exactly what's happening now."

it looks right now as if the regime in Damascus could emerge from the current crisis as a winner. Syria has already established itself as an influential regional power. And for the first time since the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005, an official representative of a European government has travelled to Damascus. Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Moratinos met with President Assad.
Syria could once more increase its influence in Lebanon too, following the forced withdrawal of its troops in the aftermath of Hariri's death. The anti-Syrian government in Beirut has been weakened and Syria's ally Hezbollah has been strengthened massively, at least ideologically.

Ha’aretz points out the stunning success of noble forces in degrading the slimy terrorists in Lebanon (excerpted)

The large number and the location of the casualties that the Israel Defense Forces sustained Wednesday indicate that the army does not yet control the narrow strip along the border, although this stage of the ground operation was supposed to have been completed already.

Although the army had conquered the town, Hezbollah men were hiding in underground bunkers well camouflaged from the outside. The bunkers had been stocked with large quantities of food, enough to last for weeks, and ammunition, including antitank missiles and, in several cases, short-range rockets.

The bunkers are connected to electricity and, according to one report, are air conditioned. When the fighting dies down, Hezbollah fighters emerge from the bunkers and set up ambushes for IDF soldiers and armored vehicles.

The Council on Foreign Relations (weekly email newsletter) points out what is happening elsewhere while Bush is reforming the Middle East

This summer, fighters loyal to a group of Islamic courts rolled into Mogadishu, routing the warlords who had served as power brokers in the capital since Somalia's last stable government collapsed in 1991. The emerging fundamentalist leadership in the violence-plagued African nation has raised U.S. fears that Somalia could become a haven for terrorists much like Afghanistan was.

And, Billmon alerts us to the news that all Americans are totally united and determined, focused intently ever since 9/11 to sign up for whatever the Dear Leader wishes us to do.

Some 30 percent of Americans cannot say in what year the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks against New York's World Trade Center and the Pentagon in Washington took place, according to a poll published in the Washington Post newspaper.

And then of course, there was the stunning domestic endorsement of Bush in Connecticut as reported by Daily Kos

In one corner, you had a bunch of unpaid volunteers, Internet rabble-rousers, and an inexperienced politician whose highest post had been County Selectman.

In the other, you had the three-time Senator, former vice-presidential candidate, visible party statesman, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer, the other popular CT senator Dodd, most of Organized Labor, the women's groups and the environmental groups, most of traditional Democratic party support, paid lobbyist support, paid armies of GOTV staff, the slick ad money, the top DLC consultants, and a 3 to 1 budget gap.
I'm sorry. That's not David vs. Goliath. This isn't even the NBA champions versus a rec league team.That's more like an ant vs. my shoe.

And the shoe lost.

Yes, its just so fitting that the supporters of Bush label their opponents as the defeat-o-crats; while Bush goes from success to success.

Posted by John Nordin at 10:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

From CNN, confirming the ban on vehicle movement

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The city of Tyre is effectively cut off from the rest of Lebanon and under a curfew. That, after Israel dropped leaflets on this southern Lebanese city banning vehicle traffic.

People are still allowed to walk around by foot. The leaflet said that any vehicle on the roads of southern Lebanon will be considered a legitimate target for Israeli airstrikes.

Now, this, of course, is causing extreme problems for international relief organizations. The president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Jacob Kellenberger, came to Tyre today, but he didn't come all the way by car. He had to stop at the Litani River, where Israel has blown out the bridge and other temporary crossings several times. He had to cross on a log, which is now the only way over the river.

When he came to Tyre, he gave a press conference and he expressed extreme concern about the humanitarian situation in southern Lebanon. He said that the Red Cross now has its second largest operation in the world here in Lebanon. That, the second one after Sudan.

He said that they're very concerned about the approximately 100,000 civilians left in southern Lebanon here in Tyre, and in towns and villages throughout the south. That, of course -- the population before was 400,000. He said the population that's still here is suffering from a lack of food, a lack of clean water, a lack of medicine. He also referred to the Israeli leaflets banning vehicle traffic, saying just because those leaflets have been dropped, it does not absolve Israel of its responsibility to respect international humanitarian law.

Meanwhile, the bombardment of southern Lebanon, from the air, from the sea, from land, from artillery continues. There's no end in sight for this conflict here on the ground.

Posted by John Nordin at 07:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The readers of Angry Arab have translated one of those flyers that Israel is dropping on the Lebanese. The Arabic is pretty bad, they report, but here is their best effort:

To the Lebanese citizens (or settlers?) who are found south of the Litani River:

Read this decree with scrutiny and do according to its directives.

The IDF will escalate its operations and will hit with overstated (or sexually mature?) force the terroristic elements that use you as a human shield and fire rockets from inside your homes in the direction of the state of Israel.

Every car and of whatever kind that it was moving south of the Litani River will be shelled because it is suspected of carrying the rockets and the military materiel and the terrorists.

It behooves you to know that anyone who moves in any car that be is exposing his life to danger.

The State of Israel.

You will have noticed in the media the common claim that since Israel told Lebanese citizens to leave, that it is their own fault if they now get bombed. Aside from the absurdity that one nation can have the authority to order the citizens of another nation to leave their homes and then transfer all moral responsibility to them for failing to obey, note carefully here the statement that all moving vehicles are considered fair game to shoot at. So – how are people supposed to get out? Walk? Take a camel? But can’t the hump of a camel be used to transport terroristic water, a known resource of the enemies of Israel?

Posted by John Nordin at 06:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Assessments

The Belgravia Dispatch points us to this quote by Prince Faisal on the “New Middle East”

“We would like to return to the old Middle East as we did not see anything in the new Middle East apart from more problems,” he said. “The Middle East is not an uninhabited area, it has people, governments and our destiny is determined after God’s will by its people.”

.. to which, let us add this remarkable statement by King Abdullah of Jordan, all the more remarkable because he is often considered to be one of “our” Arabs, a calming influence, etc., etc. Thanks to Jordan Watch for the quote

Wearing his military uniform, the king stated the following series of strong remarks that represent his views on the current issues: 1- "The USA must realize that war will bring nothing but more attrocities, violence and extremism. There is no military solution for the conflict". 2- "I said to the Jordanian military go to Lebanon even with the possibility of the planes being hit with missiles". 3- "The root cause is the Israeli occupation of Arab lands. As long as there is occupation, there will be resistance". 4- "I understand that the voice of moderates has been lowered with the feelings of anger, especially that moderate positions were not fruitful, due to factors outside of our control". 5- "The priority now is for ceasefire and then everything can be negotiated". 6- "In the begenning of my contacts with Prisidents Bush and Chirac the reactions were not encouraging in putting pressure on Israel, but now the picture is different". 7- "The marginalization of the Arabic decision and leaving it at the hands of regional and international forces will never be in the best interest of Arabs". 8- "The absence of a unified Arab position is a betrayel to our people and we will regret the state of chaos"." 9- "Israeli policies have resulted in the increase of extremism stream in the Arab World at the expense of moderates". 10- "Moderation must provide results, otherwise people will have no option but to refuse moderation and seek other ways to defend their rights". 11- "If you destroy Hizbullah now and no solution is provided for Palestine, Lebanon and Syria a new Hizbullah will emerge".

Jimmy Carter makes the obvious point, courtesy of Beirut Live:

A major impediment to progress is Washington's strange policy that dialogue on controversial issues will be extended only as a reward for subservient behavior and will be withheld from those who reject U.S. assertions.

And Am Johal puts it all in one compelling question, as quoted on Electronic Lebanon

Is Israel any safer?

Posted by John Nordin at 11:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It’s bad enough that the Democrats are so often missing in action. Now, when it comes to Lebanon, a good chunk of the noisy progressive left is also missing.

I thank BillMon for the courage to talk about this. I've noticed the blanket of silent approval for Israel on Air America and Josh Marshall to name two. Josh in particular is hard to figure out because he recently posted approvingly a message about Iraq in the "to deal with terrorists with popular support you can't just bomb them" mode and then endorsed exactly that policy in regard to Lebanon. And listening to Al Franken desperately try to get Juan Cole to say something good about Israel’s policy was hilarious. It was as if Al just couldn’t grasp the concept that a government policy could be wrong when it came to Israel.

There is a big blind spot among liberals on Israel. The recent unanimous endorsement of the senate resolution that took Israel’s self-delusion at face value was depressing. So was the tone-deaf reaction from one of Washington’s senators when I wrote to complain about her vote.

To place pressure on Hamas and the Palestinian government to return the kidnapped soldier, Israel launched a military incursion into Gaza.

And how well did that work? Did anyone think that blowing up the electric plant was going to work?

This unprovoked attack by Hezbollah has resulted in a wave of continual artillery fire and air strikes on both sides of the border in northern Israel and southern Lebanon .

Notice the rhetorical move to invoke implicity the “caught in the crossfire” defense: implying that all that death in Lebanon was the result of some cosmic force, unidentifiable, and not Israel’s doing. And then, there is this most hilarious statement:

In addition, Hezbollah continues to ignore and fails to comply with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559, which calls for disarming Hezbollah and for the Lebanese Army to take control throughout the entire country.

Oh, my, yes, why compliance with UN resolutions are just the thing Israel does, right? Talk about the black paint factory calling the kettle black.

Lebanon: Israel’s Vietnam. Or is it Israel’s Iraq? If Afghanistan was Russia’s Vietnam, then is Iraq America’s Russia? I get them all mixed up: it’s pretty amazing how a policy with exactly zero success over 40 years is still considered the “tough minded, manly, cold-eyed realistic” approach.

Billmon suspects, I think rightly, that having been totally silent in opposition to the Iraq war, that the Democrats will be totally silent again should we invade Iran.

Posted by John Nordin at 10:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The fatwa by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani of Iraq in regard to the massacre at Qana (translation by Juan Cole). Cole believes this is an explicit warning that there will be consequences if there is not an immediate cease fire.

The scale of the tragedy that has befallen Lebanon is a result of the continuous Israeli attacks, which have reached the point where patience can no longer bear more. It is not possible to stand with folded hands before them. The international community must take the intitiative to impose an immediate ceasefire and to halt this horrific tragedy.

The Muslim world and all peace-loving people will not excuse the parties that put obstacles in the way of this. There will be severe consequences in the entire region.

Isrealie prime minister Olmert in Haaretz, taking a page from the Bush "if at first it blows up in your face, do the exact same thing only more so" playbook:

Olmert reiterated on Monday that Israel would continue its offensive until the arrival of an international stabilization force in Lebanon. "Israel is continuing to fight," Olmert told a mayors conference in Tel Aviv. "There is no cease-fire, and there will not be a cease-fire in the upcoming days."

Once again, only a humor blog (Whatever it is, I’m against it) noticed that the empress has only old Prada clothes:

So what is the Israeli government up to? Yesterday when the Israeli 48-hour aerial ceasefire was announced by Condi, it looked like she was being given credit she didn’t deserve. But less than an hour after she got on her plane and left, the prime minister and defense minister said, “Ceasefire? What ceasefire?”, resumed their bombing raids, and within a few hours the cabinet voted to expand the war. It looks very much like Condi was played. Did they really lie to her face about their intentions? Did they do so just to make her go away, thinking she’d accomplished something? And how can she return to the region now?

Two blowhards deny that civilians are really innocent, as posted on Whiskey Bar:

Rush Limbaugh: July 31, 2006 "Until civilians -- frankly, I'm not sure how many of them are actually just innocent little civilians running around versus active Hezbo types, particularly the men -- but until those civilians start paying a price for propping up these kinds of regimes, it's not going to end, folks. What do you mean, civilians start paying a price? I just ask you to consult history for the answer to that.”

Osama bin Laden March 1997 "We declared jihad against the US government, because the US government is unjust, criminal and tyrannical. It has committed acts that are extremely unjust, hideous and criminal . . . As for what you asked regarding the American people, they are not exonerated from responsibility, because they chose this government and voted for it despite their knowledge of its crimes in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq and in other places."

This seems to be the new move by the crypto-fascists: to deny that Lebanese are really innocent. Alan Dershowitz made that argument earlier as well.

These differences and others are conflated within the increasingly meaningless word "civilian" — a word that carried great significance when uniformed armies fought other uniformed armies on battlefields far from civilian population centers. Today this same word equates the truly innocent with guilty accessories to terrorism. … The Israeli army has given well-publicized notice to civilians to leave those areas of southern Lebanon that have been turned into war zones. Those who voluntarily remain behind have become complicit. Some — those who cannot leave on their own — should be counted among the innocent victims.

So, if Osama warns us about another terrorist attack, then those who don’t leave would be guilty? Palestinians have warned Israel to leave either Palestine or Israel itself for years – so does that mean the Israelis are not totally innocent either? Hasn’t the Israeli population chosen governments that continue to occupy Palestine – and finance those governments – so are they now not totally innocent if they are killed in what people like me would call terrorist attacks?

Better to keep civilians innocent – those getting shelled by Hezbollah rockets and those buried under IDF bombs.

Posted by John Nordin at 11:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Al Jazeera

Israel also continued a vast operation in the West Bank town of Nablus on Friday, where troops destroyed almost all the local Palestinian Authority headquarters, sources on both sides said. Ahmed Anab, a 38-year-old resident whose house is adjacent to the local muqataa (government office compound), was killed outside his home from the force of explosives detonated by the Israeli army, a medical source said. A Palestinian security official confirmed that for the third straight day, Israeli forces were working at destroying the muqataa. "Three bulldozers are destroying it night and day and reducing the buildings to dust," he said. "The police building, local interior ministry and preventive security building have been entirely destroyed," he added.

Reporters without Boarders

Reporters Without Borders voiced outrage today at the Israeli military’s decision to strike telecommunication installations in Lebanon, thereby depriving millions of Lebanese citizens of TV news and information, especially the broadcasts of the commercial Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation (LBC). An LBC technician was killed when installations in Satka, in East Beirut, were attacked. "We are outraged by the death of an LBC technician in these air strikes, which were carried out without taking account of the need to protect media employees and other civilians. Media installations may under no circumstances be treated as military targets," the press freedom organisation said. "After bombing Hezbollah’s TV station Al-Manar, the Israeli authorities are stepping up the destruction of Lebanese media installations and means of communication, and this is absolutely scandalous."

Angry Arab

Israeli planes "bravely" bomb installations for LBC-TV--the most pro-US and most right-wing media in Lebanon. And New TV is now off the air--at least here in the US.

Human Rights Watch

Israel has used artillery-fired cluster munitions in populated areas of Lebanon, Human Rights Watch said today. Researchers on the ground in Lebanon confirmed that a cluster munitions attack on the village of Blida on July 19 killed one and wounded at least 12 civilians, including seven children. Human Rights Watch researchers also photographed cluster munitions in the arsenal of Israeli artillery teams on the Israel-Lebanon border.

Ze’ev Maoz in Haaretz

There's practically a holy consensus right now that the war in the North is a just war and that morality is on our side. The bitter truth must be said: this holy consensus is based on short-range selective memory, an introverted worldview, and double standards.

This war is not a just war. Israel is using excessive force without distinguishing between civilian population and enemy, whose sole purpose is extortion. That is not to say that morality and justice are on Hezbollah's side. Most certainly not. But the fact that Hezbollah "started it" when it kidnapped soldiers from across an international border does not even begin to tilt the scales of justice toward our side.

Posted by John Nordin at 09:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

We, you and us, are here today because your political class is not up to the challenge. I am sorry, but the Hamas government was elected democratically, and there were myriad ways to deal with them. MYRIAD. But this is the stage of your destiny that you have reached: you build walls around yourselves (you to whom the Massada is a foundational trauma/myth!), and you chase barefoot, toothless, illiterate, hungry people with a state of the art military arsenal. And you insist that you are victims, and you insist that you are on the right side of history. All this bulllshit will catch up with you.

These words, reproduced in the No Quarter blog are from Nisreen Salti a woman living in Beirut. In the paragraph quoted the "your" refers to Israel. But it could refer to the US also.

Posted by John Nordin at 09:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It’s hard to keep up with all the countries we’re going to invade. Just when I was getting around to working on why invading Iran was a bad idea, now maybe it is Syria that is next in our sights. But just in case Israel bombing the hell out of Lebanon continues to be blamed neither on Israel nor on Hezbollah but on Iran, here are some pertinent facts from “Iran: Consequences of a War” by Paul Rogers, published by the Oxford Research Group. Facts from the report; interpretations and questions by me.

Israel does have the capability of projecting air power to Iran thanks to us selling them long-range versions of the F-15 and F-16, as well as over 500 large earth penetrating bombs (p.4). Could any of this have motivated Iran and other nations to acquire longer-range weapons of their own? And what does Israel need bunker-buster weapons for if not to go after the sort of hardened underground facilities that the Palestinians do NOT have?

The US routinely keeps one aircraft carrier battle group near the Persian Gulf and sometimes two during rotations. (p.7). This would presumably provide all the air power needed for the US to launch yet another one of those mythical “surgical” attacks that – because all the trouble they cause is weeks and months later – are regarded as easy and painless by civilian leaders.

We’d presumably want to take out the 1000Mw reactor near Bushehr (p.7), but since it goes critical this year an attack that broke the containment structure would spread radiation not only over Arabs and Persians we don’t care about but maybe over US soldiers (whom the Bush administration doesn’t much care about) and over oil production facilities that we do care about.

Continue reading "Just in case it’s Iran we invade next" »

Posted by John Nordin at 09:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

“Israel’s right to defend itself.” “Confront terrorism.” “Measured response.” “Israel must show resolve.”

All the clichés are out in force to prevent any facts from getting in the way of the next disaster in the Middle East.

Brilliant. Of course, everyone has forgotten that Israel's invasion of Gaza happened just days after Hamas was inching towards changing their position and accepting (in some fashion) Israel's right to exist. No, that fact has been sent down the memory hole, doesn't exist. Couldn’t possibly exist because you know that Arab = Terrorist. If they did say that, it was a trick, because Arab = Terrorist.

Once again the extremists on both sides have won.

So many seem to think that the proper response to an outlaw faction kidnapping one Israeli is to blow up bridges, the airport, electric plants, arrest officials who were condemning the kidnapping, etc, etc. Even more brilliant. Yes, that really encouraged good behavior, rewarded Palestinians working for peace, strengthened those who said terrorism is not the way. Yup, very effective.

And in Lebanon? Rockets being launched against Israel, so of course, bombing their airport, and then the road to Syria, killing scores of civilians, while not bombing the sites where the rockets were being launched from – that will really assist in undermining the terrorists. So the Lebanese government may fall and Hezbollah come to power there. That will really help things out.

Yes, I’m sure the terrorists who did the kidnappings wanted to sabotage the movement in Hamas towards cutting a deal with Israel. Just as Israel is desperate to sabotage Hamas becoming a mainstream political party. Because, you see, there are people out there who don’t want the two peoples to live in peace with each other – people on both sides. It’s just that in one case it’s government policy supported by the US.

And they extremists have really won – big time.

And I don’t suppose many remember that Hamas has been running local councils for over a year – and working just fine with Israeli technical experts at ground level all along – a de facto recognition of Israel. And observing the cease-fire better than Israel has? Better than Arafat’s corrupt Fatah ever did?

Oh, but what about all those rockets from Gaza? Well, more facts that have vanished. The work of Abbas to get a deal brokered in late June to stop that rocket fire – well, that fact has also disappeared. It was hard to get that deal with Islamic Jihad, since they unreasonably thought that Israel should stop bombing Gaza in exchange for them stopping bombing Israel, but the iron law of the region is that only the victims must be pacifists.

The truth was that before the boneheads kidnapped the soldier there was more positive movement towards a realistic deal than in maybe years. But now the hotheads on both sides have done it in.

Lebanon Hezbollah has declared open war on Israel. An Israeli ship has already been hit by a drone. Oil is at $78 a barrel and climbing.

Great.

And of course, Bush is alone in defending Israel. The EU, the Vatican, condemn the actions as out of line. Israel is doing what we did in Iraq, and it won’t work any better.

Great.

Posted by John Nordin at 07:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

An Israeli ground and air assault struck the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, taking out several bridges and a power plant as troops searched for a kidnapped comrade. The operation came as Palestinian factions neared agreement on an approach to peace talks that could commit Hamas to an implicit recognition of Israel's right to exist.

So writes the Council on Foreign Relations in their weekly newsletter.

Read it carefully. To search for a hostage, bridges and the power plant were bombed. Well, that follows doesn’t it? The operation was started just as Hamas was moving decisively towards recognition of Israel. Nothing worth keeping there, was there?

Man, that attack was just in time – peace might have broken out if they’d waited. The excuse for the attack is the hostage taking of one Israeli solder. Taking hostages is a bad thing; the move by a Hamas faction stupid and evil – subjecting that soldier, his family and friends to much pain and suffering.

And the non-Hamas part of the Palestinian leadership as well as half the Hamas leadership was inching around to finding the soldier and negotiating to have him released. If successful, it would have confirmed the power and prestige of the moderates, created momentum for a settlement and made it easier for Hamas to recognize Israel. Instead we have this.

Who gained? The bitter-enders on the Palestinian side who didn’t want Hamas to recognize Israel. And the Israeli government won as well. They can go back to brave talk, threats, and stirring the masses with their heroic dreams of greater Israeli. But more Israelis will die because of this invasion and more Palestinians will as well. The people on the ground lost.

So the bitter-enders on both sides, Arab and Jew, seized a moment when things were moving forward and sabotaged it from both sides. And now more will be killed.

Posted by John Nordin at 09:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Once, as expected, Hamas won the Palestinian elections, from all across the US media brows were furrowed and hands were wrung. Everyone was “troubled”, “concerned,” and so on. This was totally new ground, unprecedented, a new and dangerous situation, they cried. As usual, when one is dealing with the US media, total ignorance of the actual situation ruled the day. With just a little bit of research, a whole new set of facts could have been discovered.

One place to begin that research is with a report from January of this year by the International Crisis Group entitled Enter Hamas: The Challenges of Political Integration

Let us first consider the ruling frame on Hamas: that it is an out-of-control, terrorist organization that cannot be negotiated with. The report makes these points:

· Hamas had not committed a single suicide bombing until after the terrorist attack by Baruch Goldstein at the Ibrahimi mosque in Hebron in February 25, 1994 in which 29 were killed and many more wounded.

· Hamas has observed the ceasefire instituted in October 2005, and has been more faithful in keeping it than other Palestinian factions and maybe even more faithful than the Israelis.

In other words, Hamas campaign of terrorism was set off by a single act of Israeli terror. And, they are under control, and can make and change their policies.

As for the disaster that is thought to ensue now that they have come to power, everyone acts as if the parliamentary elections was the first time Hamas has won an election and that now an entirely new situation confronts the world. But in fact, Hamas captured 14 of 35 councils in the first round of elections and continued to do well in subsequent local elections. In other words, Hamas has been in power locally and does have a track record at using that power.

How have they used that power?

Continue reading "Hamas Hand wringing" »

Posted by John Nordin at 11:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Could it be that they are actually thinking of invading or attacking Iran? Using tactical nukes? Or will they have the Israelis do it for us? Could the saber rattling be just to try to scare Iran (which it won’t) and then the Busites will be backed into a corner by their own extreme rhetoric? Or maybe the extreme language is a trick: they will do a “little” raid or some sanctions and – because we’ve been conditioned by the extreme rhetoric we’ll think we convinced Bush to be reasonable.

Whatever, it’s a bad idea all around. Some facts:

Iran
1.6 million sq km – About the size of Alaska
68.8 million people
4.3 million cell phones
GDP: $552 billion (purchasing power parity)
GDP/capita: $8,100

Iraq
437 thousand sq km – twice the size of Idaho
26.7 million people
547 thousand cell phones
GDP: $94 billion (purchasing power parity)
GDP/capita: $3,400

France
547 thousand sq km – twice the size of Colorado
60.8 million people
44.5 million cell phones.
GDP: $1.8 trillion
GDP/capita: $30,000

All data from the CIA fact book. The cell phone number is a proxy for the level of development. France I listed just because we might be invading them after Iran.

So: Iran. Four times the size, three times the people, six times the economy. Oh yea, Iraq went so well, Iran should be just easy.

I think Bush might well do something other than a full invasion – a bombing, sanctions, getting the Iraq army to start incidents on the border. And in a later post, I’ll explain why that won’t work either.

Posted by John Nordin at 10:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)