The sanctions do not harm the Iraqi leaders, do not advance US policy, and undermine the credibility of the US in the Middle East. "It is worse than a crime, it is a blunder," the saying goes to describe actions that, whatever their moral implications are ineffective. Our policy about the sanctions is even worse: a moral failure leading to a strategic blunder that has become a disaster on all dimensions.

Sources are given as numbers in brackets, see the end for documentation.

2.1 We have first-hand knowledge about the state of conditions inside Iraq and are not relying on Iraqi sources.

UN World Food Program was on the ground, distributing more than 50,000 metric tons of food during a month in the Northern no-fly zone.  Observed that the quality not the best, complained to Iraqi government. (1)

UNICEF report of nutrition status survey in northern no-fly zone during November 1998.  Source of "25% of children suffering malnurishment" figure.  (2)

World Health Organization is distributing drugs, medical supplies inside Iraq.  (3)

The Food and Agriculture organization is helping farmers and UN agency HABITAT is working with resettlement. (4)

2.2 The health of the Iraqi people has been significantly reduced.

97: FAO: “four million people, one-fifth of the population, are currently starving to death in Iraq.  Twenty-three percent of all children have stunted growth, approximately twice the percentage before the war.” (5)

98: Dramatic increase of leukemia and stomach cancer in southern Iraq.  Perhaps due to depleted uranium shells in Gulf War. (6)

1996: Food rationing system in effect, offering less than 60% of daily calorie intake, water and sanitation systems “a state of collapse,” shortage of life saving drugs (7)

2.3 The Iraqi economy has been destroyed.

Before Gulf War, Iraq was a middle income country, with effective health care centers. (9)

Inflation was 200 percent in 1997. (8)

Dinar: in 1990 worth $3, late 1998, 1500 dinars to the dollar. (10)

Electric power production is at 40% of 1990 levels (11)

GDP/capita was $2,840 in 1989, reduced to $200 in 1997, Peter Boone, et all., Center for Economic and Social Rights, quoted in Carapico. Of course, the Gulf War has to be factored into this calculation.

2.4 Social systems are falling apart.

Sanctions cause disruption to traditional family and extended families.  “Today one finds many single-parent family .. plus an increase in divorce brought about by the economic and other stresses that sanctions have imposed. … homelessness and resort to prostitution have resulted.” (12)

“hopelessness and depression, … collapse of Islamic family values … undermined the expectation of many innocent Iraqi people for the future. … begging, growth of corruption” (13)

Women’s gains towards equality have been reversed. (14)

Half the schools are not fit to be used, 10,000 teachers have left because they can’t live on their $10 a month salary, crime is rising.  Up to $41 billion may be needed to restore the infrastructure. (15)

Student dropout rates at 30%, “in a country previously famous in the Arab world for the quality of its education.”  (16)

Pull Quote: “Quite simply, the West is conducting a monstrous social experiment on the people of Iraq.  A once-prosperous nation is being driven into the pre-industrial Dark Ages.”  (17)

2.5 Deaths among adults have increased.

250 people a day die, UNICEF , 1998 (18)

“economic sanctions may well have been a necessary cause of the deaths of more people in Iraq than have been slain by all so-called weapons of mass destruction throughout history.” (19)

Children suffering from marasmus, a type of malnutrition unknown in Iraq earlier. (30)

World Health Organization estimates six to seven thousand children under five dying each month due to sanctions. (31)

Infant mortality is the highest in the world.  (32)

A calculation about increased deaths of children:
Infant mortality from 80/1000 in 1989 to 160 1994-95, Sarah Zaidi, CESR, quoted in Carapico, p. 3
Given birth rate of 40.3/1000 x 18.1 mill population: 58,300 before.
Given birth rate of 38.4 x 21.2 mill population: 130,200 after, increase of 71,900 per year.

Child mortality 40/1000 in 1985-90 to 198 in 1990-95, Sarah Zaidi, CESR, quoted in Carapico, p. 3

Before (estimate): 29,100, after 161,100, gain of 132,000 per year, 11,000 per month.

1998: child mortality up 40,000 a year, “due to diarrhea, pneumonia and malnutrition.”  (33)

Air strikes happening almost daily in 1999 (41)

“The campaign of daily sir strikes against Iraq” (42)

US Air Force source lists 11 bombing events in July 1999, 9 in June in the Northern no-fly zone.  All but one said to be in response to either being shot at or being imaged by Iraqi radar. (43)

Bombing, as of Jan 99, can be any part of air defense system, not just directly respond to what shot at them. (44)

190 clashes between end of Operation Desert Fox in December 98 and June 1999 (45)

November 1997 Iraq banned U.S. participation in UNSCOM inspection teams.  U.S. geared up for bombing campaign.  Russia negotiated a solution.  Clinton advisors disappointed, people reported. (51), (53)

Iraq Liberation Act of 1998, authorized $97 million in support to the Iraqi opposition (52).

Clinton backing away from Iraqi dissidents (54)

Government workers salaries are $3.30 a month (61)

General Norman Schwarzkopf opposed bombing campaign, would only strengthen Saddam’s resolve.  General Hormer thought bombing would undermine U.S. support in Arab world.  (62)

Middle class reduced to poverty, struggle to survive.  Weakens the group that could oppose Saddam. (63)

Secretary of State Madeleine Albright March 1998: “Some have suggested that, instead of military strikes, we should arm and encourage the Iraqi opposition to initiate a civil war … But the opposition is currently divided, and it would be wrong to create false or unsustainable expectations that could end in bloodshed and defeat.” (64)

An estimated 2 million Iraqi professional have left, undermining middle class. (65)

Growth of isolation and alienation among young, turning backward. (66)

Focus of Iraqi is on survival, food, job, health.  Worse because of war widows.  People dependent on social service functions of government. (67)

Sanctions and U.S. Israeli policy alienating Arab world due to concern over humanitarian situation in Iraq (68).

Strict rationing has strengthened Saddam’s control. (69)

Stalemate means there is no on-the-ground monitoring of WMD development.  (70)

“people consumed with finding their next meal do not have time to overthrow dictators.”  (71)

“the balance sheet of several years of sanctions against Iraq reveals a minim of political dividens as against a high human price paid primarily by women and children.” (72)

Perhaps 15% of food for peace supplies have reached destination. (80)

Iraq slow to take advantage of humanitarian exceptions, delay, chaos.  (81)

“supplies of syringes were held up for half a year because of fears they might be used in creating anthrax spores.  Chlorine, an important water disinfectant, has not been allowed into the country because it might be diverted into making chlorine gas, a chemical weapon developed for use in World War I but then abandoned when more effective ones because available.  Medical diagnostic techniques that use radioactive particles, once common in Iraq, are banned under the sanctions, and plastic bags needed for blood transfusions are restricted.  The sanctioners have been wary throughout about allowing the importation of fertilizers and insecticides, fearing their use for WMD production, and as a result disease-carrying pests that might have been controlled have proliferated.” (82)

Bombing has restricted travel.  (83)

Oil flow lessened due to bombing of oil pipeline repeater station on February 28,  1999. (84)

Low oil prices reduce income.  Portion of oil-for-food income taken for running UN programs, and for compensation fund.  Even fully funded, wouldn’t solve problems. (85)

“Perhaps there has been no other time in history when so many people have been condemned to starvation and deaths from preventable diseases due to political decisions made overseas.” (102)

Leslie Stahl: “We have heard that a half million children have died (as a result of sanctions against Iraq).  I mean, that is more children than died in Hiroshima.  And, you know, is the price worth it?”  Secretary Albright: “I think this is a very hard choice, but the price, we think the price is worth it.”  CBS Sixty Minutes interview, May 12, 1996. (103)

Clinton indicated that the inspection process destroyed more WMD than the Gulf War. (104)

ABC News, “Target at Will,” January 27, 1999, at abcnews.go.com/sections/world/Dailynews/iraq990127.html

Air Force News, “coalition attacks in north, south,” June 22, 1999, www.af.mil/news/June1999/n19990622_991219.html

Amnesty International News Release, “IRAQ.  UN Security Council Considers the Humanitarian Panel’s Report on Sanctions,”  July 28, 1999, www.amnesty.org/news/1999/51400699.htm

Jeremy Bowen, “Iraq strikes ‘not working’”, BBC online network, World: Middle East, August 5,  1999.

Sheila Carapico, “legalism and Realism in the Gulf,” Middle East Report, Sprint 1998, p. 3-6.

“Chronology of Significant Events,” United States European Command, jwww.eucom.mil/operations/onw/sigevents.htm.  Cited as AF

Michael Collins Dunn, “A new Low in U.S.-Arab Relations,” Middle East Policy, June 1998, p. 121-125.

F. Gregory Gause III, “Getting It Backward on Iraq,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 1999, p. 54-65.

Denis Halliday, “Why I Resigned My UN Post in protest of Sanctions,” Speech, November 5, 1998, at Harvard U., transcript at leb.net/IAC/harvard.html

Jim Hoagland, “His foreign Policy Drifting, Clinton backs away from helping Iraqi dissidents,” as on www.azstarnet.com/public/dnews/UX2276.html

James W. Moore, “Apres Saddam, Le Deluge?  Speculation on Post-Saddam Iraq,” Middle East Policy, VI:3, Feb. 1999, p. 27-44.

John Mueller, Karl Mueller, “Sanctions of Mass Destruction,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 1999, p. 43-53.

“News and Events: Daily Briefing,” October 22, 1998, www.policy.com

“Progress Reports on the Implementation of the Interagency Humanitarian Programme for the Northern Governorates of Dohuk, Erbil and Suleiymaniyah”, Office of the Iraq Programme Oil for Food, United Nations, February 1999.  Cited as UN

“Special Report: The US-Iraq Crisis,” Middle East Report, Spring 1998, p. 1-3.

David Sharrock, “Iraq is falling apart.  We are ruined.”, Guardian Weekly, May 2, 1999, p. 11

UNICEF, “State of the World’s Children, 1996”, at www.unicef.org

UNICEF 98: UNICEF April 1998 report, quoted at leb.net/IAC

Stephen Zunes, “Confrontation with Iraq: A Bankrupt US Policy,” Middle East Policy, VI:1, June 1998, p. 87-108.